[2026-05-25 08:30] Iran deal close, Warsh sworn in, Nvidia record high — DIR Daily Briefing
Daily Briefing · May 25, 2026 · 08:30 KST · DIR
The Iran deal is “largely negotiated” per Trump. Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Fed Chair — June FOMC is his first test. Nvidia Q1 revenue +85% to a record. Dow hits 50,580 (all-time high), Bitcoin sits at $77K. US markets close for Memorial Day, but five drivers and a Korean investor playbook still demand attention.
Today (May 25) is Memorial Day; NYSE and Nasdaq are closed. But the market drivers don’t rest. President Trump said the Iran deal is “largely negotiated.” Kevin Warsh was sworn in on May 22 as the new Fed Chair, with his first FOMC on June 16–17. Nvidia posted Q1 FY2027 revenue of $81.6B (+85%), a record. Primary sources: CNBC Markets and CBS News.
| Area | Top issue | Market impact | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | US-Iran deal close | Oil down hope vs uncertainty | ⚡ Mixed |
| Monetary | Warsh Fed Chair | June hold likely | 🔵 Neutral |
| Equities | US 8-week rally | Dow ATH 50,580 | 🟢 Bullish |
| AI / Tech | Nvidia +85% revenue | AI capex ongoing | 🟢 Bullish |
| Crypto | BTC $77K | Post-CLARITY Act range | 🔵 Watch |
01 | US-Iran deal — Trump says “largely negotiated”
The conflict that began with US-Israel strikes on Iran on Feb 28, 2026 now sits on the verge of an Iran deal, roughly three months later. On May 23, Trump posted that an agreement among the US, Iran, and other countries had been “largely negotiated” and was about to be announced. Iran’s foreign ministry acknowledged a phase-1 MOU and referenced 30–60 days of follow-up talks.
An Agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries.
— Donald Trump, Truth Social · May 23, 2026
Strait of Hormuz status
The Strait of Hormuz — 20% of global oil and 20% of LNG — has been effectively paralyzed since Iran’s March 2 blockade. Only IRGC-approved vessels are passing in limited numbers; CNN reported 33 vessels cleared in a 24-hour window.
| Item | Pre-war (Feb 2026) | Now (May 25) | If deal closes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | ~$72 | ~$105 (+46%) | $70–90 |
| Strait flow | 20M+ bpd | Effectively halted | Phased restoration |
| Global logistics | Normal | +40% routing cost | ~4 months to normalize |
| WTI | ~$68 | ~$98 | $65–75 |
| Korea import cost | Normal | Dubai $106 | ~$80 |
02 | Oil analysis — the Iran deal decides everything
Brent is trading near $105 — up ~46% from pre-war and a clear reflection of the global supply gap. Barclays notes US inventories are near multi-year lows (last seen in 2020) and a 6–8 mb/d daily supply deficit is in play.
| Scenario | Brent range | Probability (est.) | Sectors |
|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Deal closes (bull) | $70–90 | 45% | Airlines, transport, chemicals up / energy down |
| 🟡 Long talks (base) | $95–110 | 35% | Energy, LNG up / consumer weak |
| ❌ Deal breaks (bear) | $115–130+ | 20% | Energy, defense up / growth down |
03 | Warsh sworn in — June FOMC is the first test
Kevin Warsh (56) was sworn in on May 22 by Justice Clarence Thomas at the White House East Room as the 17th Fed Chair. The Senate confirmed him 54–45 on May 13 — the closest modern Fed confirmation vote.
Warsh’s swearing-in remarks
I will lead a reform-oriented Federal Reserve, learning from past successes and mistakes, escaping static frameworks and models, and upholding clear standards of integrity and performance.
— Kevin Warsh, post-swearing-in · May 22, 2026
| Aspect | Powell (prior) | Warsh (new) | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy bias | Gradual | Inflation-first | Slower cuts |
| Reform | Status quo | Reject static models | Operational change |
| Communication | Pressers, dot plot | Simplification push | Short-term uncertainty ↑ |
| Crypto stance | Neutral / cool | Relatively friendly | Digital-asset positive |
| Independence | Defended | Resists Trump pressure | Fed credibility preserved |
04 | US equities — 8-week rally, Dow at all-time high
On May 22 (Fri), US equities closed up for the 8th straight week on Iran-deal progress hopes and strong earnings. Dow +294pt (+0.58%) to a record 50,580p; S&P 500 +0.40% at 7,446p; Nasdaq +0.20% at 26,356p.
① Iran deal progress → oil-down hope → inflation cools
② Nvidia-led AI big-tech earnings → upward EPS revisions
③ Pre-Memorial-Day positioning
④ JPM “S&P 9,000 by mid-2027” target lifts sentiment
| Index | 5/22 close | Weekly | YTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow (DJIA) | 50,580p | +0.58% | +12.3% | All-time high |
| S&P 500 | 7,446p | +0.40% | +8.7% | 8 weeks up |
| Nasdaq | 26,356p | +0.20% | +9.1% | 7 of 7 weeks up |
| Russell 2000 | 2,240p | +0.35% | +5.2% | Small caps recovering |
| VIX | 18.2 | -2.1pt | Normal range | Risk-on tone |
05 | Nvidia Q1 — AI-factory build-out accelerating
Nvidia reported Q1 FY2027 (Feb–Apr 2026) after the close on May 20. Total revenue $81.6B (+85% YoY), beating consensus ($78.9B) by ~3.4%. Data-center revenue $75.2B (+92%), a new record.
The buildout of AI factories — the largest infrastructure expansion in human history — is accelerating at extraordinary speed. Demand has gone parabolic.
— Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO · May 20, 2026
The stock reaction was cool, though — NVDA fell 1.86% the next day. Expectations into the print were elevated. The $80B buyback authorization and dividend hike could not offset valuation drag.
| Item | Q1 FY2027 | YoY base | YoY | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue | $81.6B | $44.1B | +85% | $78.9B |
| Data center | $75.2B | $39.1B | +92% | $70.0B |
| Net income | $58.3B | $14.9B | +291% | $42.9B |
| EPS | $2.39 | $0.61 | +291% | $1.76 |
| Buyback | +$80B | — | — | Below expectations |
06 | Bitcoin $77K — range-bound after CLARITY Act
Bitcoin is consolidating near $77,000. The CLARITY Act builds a US crypto regulatory base, but Iran-deal uncertainty, a Fed hold posture, and inflation re-acceleration risk cap near-term upside. Cumulative spot BTC ETF AUM has cleared $102B, with BlackRock’s IBIT around 60% market share.
• Clear classification of crypto as security vs commodity
• Codifies SEC vs CFTC jurisdiction
• Stablecoin issuer regulatory framework
• Institutional crypto-holding guidelines
| Metric | Now (5/25) | Early April | Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC price | $77,000 | $71,200 | +8.1% | CLARITY Act |
| Spot ETF AUM | $102B | $85B | +20% | Institutional flows |
| BTC dominance | 52.3% | 49.8% | +2.5pp | Altcoin weakness |
| 24h volume | $28.2B | $19.5B | +44% | Volatility up |
| Sentiment (F&G) | 51 (neutral) | 45 (fear) | Improving | Iran deal hope |
Base (40%): Range hold $75K–80K → accumulation zone
Bear (20%): Deal breaks + PCE shock → below $70K
07 | Korea market — KOSPI next-week scenarios
Korea markets operate normally today (unrelated to US Memorial Day). The 8-week US rally and Iran-deal hope are tailwinds, but elevated oil, USD strength, and the Fed-hold posture cap KOSPI upside. Differentiated tape: semis (SK Hynix, Samsung) and AI-software beneficiaries lead.
| Driver | Positive | Negative | Names |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran deal closes | Airlines / transport surge | Energy / refiners down | Korean Air, CJ Logistics |
| Nvidia results | Semis / HBM beneficiary | Stock-down spillover risk | SK Hynix, Samsung |
| Warsh hold | USD stable | Cut hopes shrink | KOSDAQ growth headwind |
| PCE (5/29) | In-line = positive | Upside surprise = negative | Broad market |
| BTC institutionalization | Crypto names benefit | — | Dunamu, Wemade |
Bull: Iran deal + PCE in-line → 7,800–8,000 retest
Base: Delay + mixed data → 7,600–7,800 range
Bear: Deal breaks + PCE shock → under 7,400
08 | Five investor moves (as of 2026-05-25)
Synthesizing the day: five executable moves for Korean retail investors. Base case = Iran deal closes (45%), but apply diversification and scale-in discipline given the residual uncertainty.
| Move | Name | Code | Stop | Weight | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ① Airlines / transport | Korean Air | 003490 | -8% | 5% | Oil-down beneficiary if Iran deal closes |
| ② AI semis | SK Hynix | 000660 | -10% | 10% | HBM4 + Nvidia orders |
| ③ UST ETF | TIGER UST 10Y | 305080 | -5% | 8% | June hold backdrop |
| ④ BTC ETF | KODEX Bitcoin | 499760 | -12% | 5% | CLARITY Act |
| ⑤ Gold ETF | TIGER Gold/Silver | 213560 | -6% | 7% | Geopolitical hedge |
Sources
- CNBC Markets — “Bulls push the S&P 500 back near records” (May 23, 2026)
- CBS News — “Trump says Iran deal reopening Strait of Hormuz ‘largely negotiated'” (May 23, 2026)
- CNN — “US and Iran signal progress on peace deal” (May 24, 2026)
- CBS News — “Kevin Warsh sworn in as new Fed chair” (May 22, 2026)
- NVIDIA SEC 8-K — “Q1 FY2027 Earnings Release” (May 20, 2026)
- TheStreet — “Stock Market Today: Dow rises 294 points” (May 22, 2026)
- Barclays Research — “Brent Crude Forecast 2026”
- CoinDCX — “Bitcoin Price Prediction May 2026” (May 22, 2026)
This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend any specific security. Information is current as of May 25, 2026 and accuracy is not guaranteed after that date. Stocks, ETFs, and crypto carry loss-of-principal risk; responsibility rests with the investor.
