[Breaking 11:30] SK Hynix PER Surpasses Samsung for First Time — Memory Re-Rating Just Beginning
Trending · May 14, 2026 · 11:30 KST
SK Hynix PER surpassed Samsung for the first time in history on May 13, 2026 — 6.79x vs 6.77x forward earnings. A 2.80-point valuation gap evaporated in 90 days as HBM leadership reshapes Korea’s semiconductor pecking order. Both companies now target ₩80+ trillion in Q3 operating profit as DDR4 spot prices surge +3,400% in 17 months.
On May 13, 2026, a historic inflection point. SK Hynix’s 12-month forward PER reached 6.79x, surpassing Samsung Electronics at 6.77x — the first time SK Hynix PER has exceeded Samsung’s as a public company. Just three months ago the gap was 2.80 points in Samsung’s favor.
The market is unmistakably shifting Korea’s “No. 1 premium” from Samsung to SK Hynix. This analysis covers both companies’ Q3 2026 shipment and earnings forecasts, PER-based three-scenario price targets, and five key risks — in one complete read.
“The memory re-rating is still only in its earliest stages. Given the top-tier profitability among global AI-related equities, the undervaluation story has barely begun to surface.”
— Han Dong-hee, SK Securities Research (May 7, 2026)
01Current Picture — SK Hynix PER Samsung Overtake at All-Time Highs
Both companies have surpassed ₩1,000 trillion (~$730B) in market cap. With HBM ecosystem leadership crystallizing, SK Hynix has now overtaken Samsung on the most watched valuation metric.
| 🔵 Samsung Electronics (005930) | 🔴 SK Hynix (000660) ★ |
|---|---|
| Current Price ₩268,500 | Current Price ₩1,648,000 |
| Market Cap ~₩1,600T | Market Cap ~₩1,200T |
| 12M Fwd PER 6.77x | 12M Fwd PER 6.79x ★ (First-ever overtake) |
| 2026 OP Consensus ₩338T | 2026 OP Consensus ₩262T |
| SK Securities Target ₩500,000 | SK Securities Target ₩3,000,000 |
Three months ago: SK Hynix at 6.65x, Samsung at 9.45x — a 2.80-point gap. Since then, both stocks hit all-time highs, but SK Hynix’s earnings consensus has risen faster, compressing its PER less. The result is a clear market signal: SK Hynix’s earnings power is being repriced more aggressively.
02Q3 2026 Earnings Convergence — Quarter-by-Quarter Model
Both companies bottomed in Q1 2025 and have since delivered explosive sequential growth. Q3 2026 is set to be the first quarter both target ₩80+ trillion in revenue.
Samsung DS Division Quarterly Revenue (₩ trillion)
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 | 25.1 | -16.6% | Trough |
| 2025 Q2 | 27.9 | +11.2% | Recovery begins |
| 2025 Q3 | 33.1 | +18.6% | HBM volume ramp |
| 2025 Q4 | 44.0 | +32.9% | All-time record |
| 2026 Q1 | ~52 | +18.2% | Total revenue ₩133.9T |
| 2026 Q2 (est.) | 62–65 | +19–25% | Contract price +58–63% |
| 2026 Q3 (forecast) | 78–85 | +22–31% | 1c DRAM full production |
SK Hynix Quarterly Revenue (₩ trillion)
| Quarter | Revenue | QoQ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q1 | 17.6 | -10.8% | Trough |
| 2025 Q2 | 22.2 | +26.0% | HBM3E ramp |
| 2025 Q3 | 24.5 | +10.0% | — |
| 2025 Q4 | 32.8 | +34.2% | Quarterly record |
| 2026 Q1 | 52.6 | +60.1% | Operating margin 72% |
| 2026 Q2 (est.) | 65–70 | +24–33% | M15X starts |
| 2026 Q3 (forecast) | 78–88 | +20–26% | HBM4 full shipment |
03Q3 Catalysts — Bit Shipment(↑) × ASP(↑) Simultaneous Lift
The revenue formula is simple: Revenue = Bit Shipment × Average Selling Price. Q3 is set to deliver an increase in both variables simultaneously — a rare condition in memory history.
4 Shipment Growth Drivers
| Driver | Detail |
|---|---|
| Samsung 1c DRAM | +80K WPM by Q2 2026, +60K more by Q4. Q3 is first quarter of meaningful revenue contribution |
| SK Hynix M15X fab | New fab starts H1 2026, reaches 50K WPM by Q3. Dedicated to HBM core die production |
| HBM capacity ramp | SK Hynix 170K → 220K WPM; Samsung 170K → 250K WPM (year-end 2026 targets) |
| OpenAI Stargate LOI | 900K wafers/year LOI signed Oct 2025 → Q3 first formal revenue recognition milestone |
4 ASP Drivers
- DDR4/DDR5 contract pricing: Q2 2026 +58–63% QoQ. Q3 pricing sees further lift per TrendForce forecasts
- NAND contract pricing: Q2 +70–75% QoQ. Q3 large-density pricing holding firm
- HBM ASP premium: 5–7x general DRAM. HBM4 launch adds further premium layer
- Long-Term Agreements (LTA): Both Samsung and SK Hynix signed 3–5 year LTAs; Q3 is first full quarter of LTA revenue recognition
Revenue = Bit Shipment(↑) × ASP(↑) — Both variables rising together in Q3
04Memory Price Surge — DDR4 +3,400% in 17 Months
DDR4 8Gb spot moved from $1.37 in December 2024 to $48 in May 2026 — a +3,400% gain in 17 months. A 35x move in under a year and a half is unprecedented in memory cycle history. This is not recovery; this is structural supply shortage unfolding in real time.
Two forces are at work. AI data center memory demand has exploded. And HBM production is cannibalizing conventional DRAM wafer capacity. Every wafer converted to HBM means one fewer unit of commodity DRAM. The constraint is structural, not cyclical.
💡 Why this cycle is different — Traditional memory cycles ran 18–24 months. This one differs structurally: HBM capacity cannibalization + DDR4 End-of-Life + multi-year AI datacenter LTAs have transformed earnings predictability. When earnings become stable, PER valuation becomes applicable. That’s why the market is shifting from PBR to PER — the structural change Han Dong-hee calls a “paradigm shift in valuation methodology.”
05Samsung Price Targets — Three Scenarios
Based on SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee’s May 7, 2026 report, three scenarios using PER ceiling of 13x post-2025:
| Scenario | PER | Target Price | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10x | ₩380,000 | +42% |
| Base ★ | 13x | ₩500,000 | +86% |
| Bull | 16x | ₩620,000 | +131% |
The base case ₩500,000 is SK Securities’ official target. The math: 2026 OP consensus ₩338T × 13x PER. The 13x ceiling reflects Han’s view of the post-2025 multiple ceiling for Samsung — a structural repricing, not a cyclical bounce.
06SK Hynix Price Targets — Three Scenarios
| Scenario | PER | Target Price | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8x | ₩2,400,000 | +46% |
| Base ★ | 10x | ₩3,000,000 | +82% |
| Bull | 13x | ₩3,800,000 | +130% |
Why PER valuation now?
Memory historically used PBR (asset-based) multiples because the 3-year cycle made earnings unpredictable. From 2025 onward, HBM cannibalization of DRAM wafers, DDR4 End-of-Life, and multi-year AI datacenter LTAs have structurally stabilized earnings. Stable earnings allow PER application. This is what Han Dong-hee calls “the valuation methodology shift from PBR to PER.”
⚖️ Global AI stock PER comparison — NVIDIA ~40x, AMD ~60x. Memory Big-Two at 6–7x is roughly one-sixth of their AI-chain peers. Same AI semiconductor cycle, but memory still priced as a cyclical commodity. This valuation gap is the core of SK Securities’ bull thesis — and why SK Hynix PER Samsung crossover matters beyond the 0.02-point margin.
075 Risks That Could Break the Bull Case
The bull scenario is compelling. But five variables could shake the PER multiple. A balanced view requires holding both sides.
| Risk | Detail |
|---|---|
| ① Samsung union strike (May 21 – June 7) | If it materializes: 22,000 wafers/day scrapped, ~₩1T in losses per day. Direct Q2 earnings hit |
| ② China’s CXMT DRAM expansion | DRAM capacity growing rapidly. Commodity memory pricing downside risk as Chinese supply floods in |
| ③ 2027 supply normalization | iM Securities and others flag potential equilibrium if both supply and demand growth converge at ~14% |
| ④ Macro headwinds | US-Iran tensions, tariffs, FX volatility — macro factors can compress target PER multiples directly |
| ⑤ HBM4 yield issues | 12-stack/16-stack yield challenges. If Samsung falls further behind SK Hynix, competitive gap widens further |
⚠ Most Immediate Risk — Samsung union strike is planned May 21–June 7. If it materializes, direct impact on Samsung Q2 earnings. SK Hynix could see short-term benefit as a competitor capacity constraint. Watch Samsung labor talks closely through May 21.
08Bottom Line — How to Approach the Memory Big-Two
Memory re-rating is still in its earliest innings.
The SK Hynix PER Samsung overtake is a beginning, not an end.
— Memory Big-Two one-line summary
The SK Hynix PER Samsung crossover is not a trivial data point. It signals that the “Korea No. 1 premium” has shifted from Samsung to SK Hynix — a structural reallocation, not noise. Yet both companies still trade at PER 6x, roughly one-sixth of global AI peers trading at 40–60x.
For investors, the core question is: “Do I want exposure to Memory Big-Two, and if so, what scenario am I underwriting?” The answer depends on risk tolerance.
| Investor Type | Preferred Scenario | Expected Upside |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Bear/Conservative scenario | Samsung +42% / SK Hynix +46% |
| Neutral (majority) | Base scenario | Samsung +86% / SK Hynix +82% |
| Aggressive | Bull scenario | Samsung +131% / SK Hynix +130% |
Key Calendar: May–July 2026
① May 21–June 7: Samsung union negotiations outcome
② Late May: Q2 guidance release (confirming contract price +58–63%)
③ Late June: OpenAI Stargate — first formal revenue recognition
④ July FOMC + US-China chip rules: Direction of Nvidia export restrictions impact
⑤ Late July: Both companies Q2 earnings (operating margin vs consensus)
Short-term volatility is certain. But if it’s true that Memory Big-Two’s earnings predictability has structurally improved, a PER of 6x will eventually re-rate toward higher multiples. The question is whether the catalyst arrives at Q2 earnings (late July) or Q3 results (late October).
Memory Big-Two at 6x PER —
possibly the last chance to accumulate before re-rating.
— Closing thought
Sources: SK Securities Research — Han Dong-hee (May 7, 2026 Memory Industry Report) · iM Securities memory supply analysis · TrendForce DRAM/NAND price data · Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix quarterly earnings releases · OpenAI Stargate LOI coverage (Oct 2025) · KOSPI 200 market cap data (as of May 13, 2026)
※ This article is scenario-based analysis using publicly available data and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader. Actual results may differ materially due to market conditions, macro variables, and company-specific risks. Price targets are derived from SK Securities and other research reports and do not represent personal recommendations. Written as of May 13, 2026.
