2026.05.20 Daily Briefing — Warsh Fed Takes Office·Iran War·KOSPI -3.25% / Google I/O Gemini / Ebola Emergency / Action Points

Daily Briefing · May 20, 2026 · 17:30 KST

Warsh Takes Office + Iran War Continues — Q2 inflation forecast at 6% puts July rate hike on the table. WTI breaks $104, KOSPI -3.25%, USD/KRW 1,507. Google I/O Gemini full upgrade announced. Five things markets need to know.

DIR Editorial · KEY_DIR · ~5 min read

1. Warsh takes office — July rate hike now in play. Q2 inflation forecast at 6%, bond market demands tightening pivot. US 10Y at 4.67%. First FOMC: June 17.
2. Iran war continues — Hormuz structural risk hardens. WTI breaks $104. KOSPI -3.25%, USD/KRW 1,507 as Korea absorbs triple shock.
3. Google I/O 2026 — Gemini full platform upgrade. AI agent search, Gmail AI, Smart Glass, Flow video AI. DeepMind CEO declares “singularity imminent.”
4. Ebola DRC — WHO declares international emergency. 500+ cases, 134 dead. American patient en route home. Bundibugyo variant — existing vaccines unconfirmed.
5. India-Pakistan ceasefire + energy security cooperation declared. Joint LNG procurement agreed, signaling Middle East diversification.

① Warsh Takes Office — July Rate Hike Now in Play

Kevin Warsh officially became Fed Chair today. Nominated to cut rates, circumstances have reversed entirely: Q2 inflation is forecast at 6% and bond markets are demanding a tightening pivot, putting a July rate hike seriously on the table. The 10-year yield hit 4.67%, the highest since 2007, sounding global bond market alarm bells. If Warsh allows this to continue unchecked, bond market functioning itself could be compromised. Warsh’s first FOMC is June 17.

USD/KRW: 1,507.01 (+1.25%), DXY: 99.31 (+0.21%). KOSPI: 7,271.66 (-3.25%) — Iran war compound shock. Gold: $4,487.5 (-1.35%) profit-taking. VIX: 18.06 (+1.40%) rising unease. S&P 500: 7,353.61 (-0.67%).

② Iran War + Hormuz Structural Risk

Iran: US-Iran tensions persist and Hormuz strait closure concerns have hardened into a structural risk. Additional damage to Iran’s Radar refinery confirmed; Trump’s repeat strike threats continue. WTI broke $104. SCMP warned the Malacca Strait could become the next chokepoint. India-Pakistan’s joint LNG energy security declaration after ceasefire signals a diversification away from Middle East dependence. The June 17 FOMC and Hormuz deadline remain the crossroads for oil and rates direction.

Korea impact: Korea’s 100% energy import dependency meant it absorbed an energy-currency-rate triple shock simultaneously. KOSPI -3.25%, USD/KRW 1,507 is the result. The semiconductor supercycle outlook is intact, but today’s selloff was Iran-driven.

③ Google I/O 2026 + ④ Ebola Emergency

Google I/O 2026: Gemini full upgrade, AI agent search, Gmail AI composition, Smart Glass, and Flow video AI announced in a sweeping declaration of AI platform dominance Phase 2. DeepMind CEO’s “singularity imminent” statement signals long-duration AI investment cycle. Bitcoin miners pivoting to AI power suppliers via 27GW capacity and $90B data center conversions is a structural shift worth tracking. Mistral AI’s acquisition of Emmi AI accelerates European AI startup consolidation.

Ebola: DRC surpasses 134 deaths, WHO PHEIC declared. Bundibugyo variant — existing vaccine efficacy unconfirmed. Uganda spread warning active. Monitor SK Bioscience (302440.KS). Avoid Sub-Saharan Africa regional asset exposure.

Today’s Action Points

WATCH: ① Iran-US negotiation outcome — deal = WTI drops, market rebound trigger ② Warsh first statement + June 17 FOMC direction ③ Nvidia earnings — AI/semiconductor cycle confirmation, Korea related stocks ④ Ebola European spread confirmation = airline/travel stock risk.

Tomorrow’s report will analyse Warsh’s first official statement and Nvidia earnings results in depth.